The scenario
planning for NOG
According
to GBN, scenario planning has five basic steps:
Stage 1: determine
a focal issue or critical decision to ‘anchor’ the process.
Stage 2: identify
and analyze the internal and external driving forces after the decision (these
drivers are usually categorized into ‘predetermined elements’, those which we
have a good idea about how they will play out over time – for example,
demographics, and ‘critical uncertainties’, those which we have no real
understanding of how they will develop into the future).